Monday 3 April 2017

Premier League top six run-in: Can Chelsea hang on for the title or will Tottenham catch them? And can Manchester United or Arsenal make the top four?

It was a weekend to suggest there may be more twists and turns to come in the Premier League title race, while the scramble for the top four remains very much on.
Chelsea suffered a shock defeat at home to Crystal Palace on Saturday and that, combined with Tottenham's 2-0 win at Burnley, means the gap at the top has been trimmed to seven points.
Liverpool's Merseyside derby victory strengthened their Champions League chances, while Manchester City, Manchester United and Arsenal could only take a point from their games.
With another crucial round of matches awaiting in midweek, we analyse what comes next for each of the top six as they round the bend and enter the season's home straight.

1. CHELSEA
29 matches played, 69 points
For months now, everyone has expected Chelsea to canter away with the title with most predicting a championship coronation sometime this month.
But Saturday's surprise home defeat to Crystal Palace - which cut their lead at the top to seven points - has forced a slight reassessment and it isn't exactly an ideal time to be playing Manchester City.
Previously, a draw in this City match would have all but sealed it, but now it almost takes on a 'must-win' imperative, and nerves will most definitely be jangling if they lose and Tottenham win.
However, on the plus side for Antonio Conte, their run-in is pretty straightforward and even if the gap is slashed to just four points, you can't see them dropping too many more.
Although they must travel to hard-to-beat Manchester United, they should take maximum returns from all of their other games and it's still very hard to see them blowing it from here.
Fixtures to come
Wednesday Manchester City (H); April 8 Bournemouth (A); April 16 Manchester United (A); April 25 Southampton (H); April 30 Everton (A); May 8 Middlesbrough (H); May 13 West Bromwich Albion (A); May 21 Sunderland (H) TBA Watford (H)
Fixtures difficulty rating: 2.5/5 Prediction: 1st
2. TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR
29 matches played, 62 points
Ever since Chelsea pulled away ahead of them, Mauricio Pochettino and his Tottenham players have vowed to keep on winning games and wait for their break.
At last, that glimmer of hope has arrived. As they walked off the field at Burnley on Saturday following their 2-0 win, their spirit would have been further lifted by the news from Stamford Bridge.
But Spurs know that, realistically, they have to win every one of their remaining nine matches and even that may not be enough. They face challenging home games against both Arsenal and Manchester United, though the remainder of their fixtures should be winnable.
They'll also have to do it without their talisman striker Harry Kane, out with an ankle injury, but they compensated well at Turf Moor with others stepping up to the plate.
It's a tall order and much will hinge on the midweek results, but Spurs still have a sniff and they'll have to hope Chelsea's psyche has been damaged by Saturday's unexpected defeat.
Fixtures to come
Wednesday Swansea City (A) April 8 Watford (H) April 15 Bournemouth (H) April 26 Crystal Palace (A) April 30 Arsenal (H) May 5 West Ham United (A) May 13 Manchester United (H) May 21 Hull City (A) TBA Leicester City (A)
Fixtures difficulty rating: 2.5/5 Prediction: 2nd
3. LIVERPOOL
30 matches played, 59 points
This was a highly significant weekend for Liverpool, who looked excellent in their 3-1 win over Everton in the Merseyside derby and then saw the three sides below them all draw.
It means that Jurgen Klopp's side are on course to achieve their target at the beginning of the season - Champions League football for only the second time in seven seasons.
With a six-point gap to fifth place and a very favourable run-in, not to mention no FA Cup semi-final distractions, Liverpool are sitting pretty. Another couple of wins and Liverpool should be assured of their top four place and if they come third or higher, they won't have to enter the play-off round in August.
It should constitute a satisfactory season for the Reds, although Klopp may have wanted a first piece of silverware having come so close in two cup competitions last season.
Fixtures to come
Wednesday Bournemouth (H) April 8 Stoke City (A) April 16 West Bromwich Albion (A) April 23 Crystal Palace (H) May 1 Watford (A) May 7 Southampton (H) May 13 West Ham United (A) May 21 Middlesbrough (H)
Fixtures difficulty rating: 2/5 Prediction: 4th
4. MANCHESTER CITY
29 matches played, 58 points
With Manchester United only drawing on Saturday, City had a superb chance to take a firm grip of fourth spot but they only managed a draw at Arsenal and the gap remains at five points.
United also retain a game in hand but appear to be faltering with their extra European commitments, while City still look relatively strong.
It hasn't been the swashbuckling debut campaign Pep Guardiola imagined after they won their first 10 games, and a return to the Champions League is really the minimum of expectations, but he'll have learned a lot. They can take a firmer hold if they win at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday, but it could all boil down to the Manchester derby at the Etihad Stadium on April 27.
Win that and City will be almost certainly in Europe's elite competition. Lose, and Pep could still face the indignity of the Europa League.
Fixtures to come
Wednesday Chelsea (A) April 8 Hull City (H) April 15 Southampton (A) April 27 Manchester United (H) April 30 Middlesbrough (A) May 6 Crystal Palace (H) May 13 Leicester City (H) May 21 Watford (A) TBA West Brom (H)
Fixtures difficulty rating: 2.5/5 Prediction: 3rd
5. MANCHESTER UNITED
28 matches played, 53 points
In the vast majority of Premier League seasons, embarking on a 19-match unbeaten run would deliver the title. But it's had the effect of moving Jose Mourinho's United from sixth to fifth.
The reason is that they've drawn more matches this season than anyone else in the league except Middlesbrough - 11 - and eight of those have come at home.
This alarming lack of a cutting edge at Old Trafford was again evident on Saturday, when they played out a stalemate with West Brom and blew a great opportunity to close the gap on City. From here, they have a five-point gap to bridge with a fiendish run of fixtures ahead. In their 10 remaining league games, United must host Chelsea and travel to City, Arsenal and Spurs.
Then there's a potential five Europa League games to factor in should United reach the final in Stockholm on May 24. It's absolutely exhausting and United's squad will be stretched to the limit.
Mourinho may gamble and play his strongest team in Europe, sacrificing their chances of finishing in the top four. It would be Champions League or bust.
Fixtures to come
Tuesday Everton (H) April 9 Sunderland (A) April 16 Chelsea (H) April 23 Burnley (A) April 27 Manchester City (A) April 30 Swansea City (H) May 7 Arsenal (A) May 13 Tottenham Hotspur (A) May 21 Crystal Palace (H) TBA Southampton (A)
Fixtures difficulty rating: 4/5 Prediction: 5th
6. ARSENAL
28 matches played, 51 points
Having taken Champions League football for granted for two decades, there is a very real possibility now that Arsenal will miss out.
Following their 2-2 draw with City on Sunday, the Gunners need to make up a seven-point deficit to fourth and it is beginning to look a tall order.
There are so many distractions, too, with the future of Arsene Wenger hanging over the club like a dark cloud, uncertainty over Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil, and the fanbase divided into factions. They still have Tottenham and Manchester United to play and have struggled for wins in recent weeks as their confidence ebbs away.
It is looking increasingly likely that Arsenal will have to make do with the Europa League next season - and what that means for Wenger is anyone's guess.
Fixtures to come
Wednesday West Ham United (H) April 10 Crystal Palace (A) April 17 Middlesbrough (A) April 26 Leicester City (H) April 30 Tottenham Hotspur (A) May 7 Manchester United (H) May 13 Stoke City (A) May 21 Everton (H) TBA Sunderland (H)
Fixtures difficulty rating: 3/5 Prediction: 6th





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